November 24, 25: Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu

A potential cyclone, Fengal, is brewing in the Bay of Bengal. It will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to many parts of southern India. According to reports from the India Meteorological Department, the cyclonic circulation developed over the South Andaman Sea on November 21 and is likely to evolve into a Low-Pressure Area by November 23.

The system is expected to become severe into a depression by November 24 and may intensify to a deep depression or even to a cyclonic storm by November 25. The IMD has said that different models suggest varying intensities, including a severe cyclonic storm and others indicate a much milder scenario.

Forecast Movement, Landfall:

According to the IMD’s GFS model, the cyclone will weaken by the time it reaches Tamil Nadu on November 27. The NCEP GFS model projects a severe cyclonic storm crossing Tamil Nadu by November 27 as a weakening system. The ECMWF model presents a less intense scenario with the system crossing Tamil Nadu as a depression by November 26.

Rainfall and Wind Forecast

The IMD has forecast light to moderate rainfall in the Andaman-Nicobar Islands with isolated heavy rain in Nicobar from November 21-24. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecasted in southern Tamil Nadu from November 25-27 with possible isolated heavy rains in Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. Gusty winds are probable along affected areas.
Historical context and current implications

Cyclone Fengal comes after Cyclone Dana, which lashed Odisha on October 25, resulting in widespread destruction. Contrary to Dana, Fengal is expected to head towards the northern coast of Sri Lanka or southern Tamil Nadu, changing the usual Bay of Bengal’s cyclone trajectory that mostly hits Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, and Odisha in November.